Trump’s Decision to Abandon US Allies in Syria: More Than Meets the Eye

US Soldiers, Syria
US Soldiers observe Turkish forces in the distance during a patrol outside Manbij, Syria, on August 19, 2018. Photo credit: US Army
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On the face of it, President Donald Trump has abandoned the key US ally on the ground in Syria, thrown a monkey wrench into the war against the Islamic State, and empowered adversaries including Russia and Iran.

Upon a closer look, he may just have gotten the US out of an untenable situation, and increased its diplomatic leverage, including by shocking friends and foes alike.

To be sure, the Syrian Kurds, who have borne the brunt of the ground war against ISIS, are livid. The largest stateless people in the Middle East, they’ve been betrayed time and again by patron foreign powers. Many of Trump’s top officials are also upset — two of whom, including former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, have already quit over the move.

Yet WhoWhatWhy has written extensively in the past about the weaknesses of the US position in Syria, particularly vis-a-vis Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army and is well-positioned to play spoiler in the area.

The US move to depart Syria, some experts such as the University of Oklahoma’s Joshua Landis say, will also force others to assume the American liabilities and increase US leverage vis-a-vis enemies such as Iran.

Far from jubilating over the US retreat, moreover, rivals — including Russia — are reportedly perplexed. For Russia, arguably a far bigger feat would have been to draw the US into a conflict with NATO-ally Turkey in Syria.

Besides, Putin, who according to different tallies has announced no fewer than three withdrawals from Syria in recent years, likely has his own reasons to doubt America’s sincerity.

Even Turkey, seen as the main beneficiary of the move, was caught off guard. When Trump first announced his decision in a phone call with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish strongman was reportedly so shocked that he was left in the comic situation of having to ask that the US postpone its withdrawal because Ankara was not fully prepared for it.

Syrian President Bashar Assad also stands to gain from the move, and Kurdish forces are widely expected to surrender control over key oil wells in the country’s east, and ally themselves with his regime in order to seek protection from Turkey. But how that will play out is anybody’s guess. Aside from traditional US opponents such as Russia and Iran, several other Western allies, including France and Israel, are reportedly clamoring to fill the void.

We are following this complex and unpredictable situation closely. Stay tuned.

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3 responses to “Trump’s Decision to Abandon US Allies in Syria: More Than Meets the Eye”

  1. While I’ve not liked many of Trump’s policies, I think decreasing war is virtually always good. Most reasons for war in Syria appear fabricated. They were no threat to the U.S. a million miles away, going into another country on the ridiculous pretense of going after the “terrorist” group ISIS remains a horrible excuse for imperialism. With that pretext, Russia should be allowed to bomb Canada in pursuit of Chechens. No one would accept that. Furthermore, the “White Helmets” have been exposed as starting from and being funded by British Intelligence, with the help of U.S. Intelligence. They appear to do P.R. work staging gassings. The before and after segments of some of their videos have been shown. Their funding sources have been revealed with good investigative articles.

  2. SPC says:

    The real issue is how this plays out at the UNSC. The USA and the Kurds, Russia and the Damascus regime can agree on arrangements for NE Syria, that includes support for a resolution against Turkish military activity in this area.

    Presumably Syria would, as part of this development reassure Turkey as to their security when they restore their authority in this area. And thus state that therefore no Turkish military incursion in this area was required. This would limit the scope of Turkish activity in Iraq as well.

  3. Alexi says:

    NOTHING good will come of this. Unless you live in Moscow.