Some people love Trump no matter what. Others will never vote for him. A small third group decides it.
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Without getting into the deeply fraught finger-pointing over who is responsible for the continuing escalation and violence in the current Israeli-Arab conflict, one thing is sure:
The anger of Arab and Muslim Americans at the Democrats for what they perceive as inadequately restraining Israel could result in Donald Trump regaining the White House.
Paradoxically, this completely understandable frustration almost guarantees an outcome scenario in which they will be far more unhappy — under a Trump Administration II.
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Polls have shown that in the critical swing state of Michigan, only a tiny percentage of the normally Democratic-voting Arab community currently plans to vote for Kamala Harris.
An August poll of these voters found a whopping 40 percent planning to vote for third-party candidate Jill Stein. Second was Trump with 18 percent. Harris had just 12 percent.
This, in a battleground state that Joe Biden won by just 2.78 percent in 2020. In Michigan about 300,000 residents claim ancestry from the Middle East or North Africa. Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020, and Harris is expected to face another tightly contested election there.
Nationally, according to a September Zogby poll, third-party candidates are pulling 12 percent of Arab Americans — and that was before vice presidential candidate Tim Walz made this bafflingly inflammatory statement during the debate on October 1:
The expansion of Israel and its proxies is an absolute, fundamental necessity, and for the United States to have steady leadership there.
A protest vote is always an option in a democracy. But not considering the result of such an action has to be seen as extremely short-sighted.
What do these voters imagine Trump, a stalwart supporter of Bibi Netanyahu, will do? Do they for one second believe that another Trump term will bring about peace — or make their relatives safer?
This is a moment when we all must pay more attention to reality. This is a moment when others have the right, indeed the responsibility to raise this matter.
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On Friday, Harris met with Arab American and Muslim leaders in Michigan in an attempt to regain their support. All of these leaders have fiercely chastised the Biden administration for its military and diplomatic backing of Israel. But some do recognize the dangers of a Trump presidency, and have formed small groups like Emgage Action and Arab Americans for Harris-Walz.
Will they feel safe among their neighbors in bringing up this principled, practical warning despite such high emotions? Can such a logical, rational concern be raised without facing wrath from one’s own community?
If not, the consequences are potentially horrendous — for the Palestinians, for Arab Americans, and for us all.
Yet this existential drama has generally been treated as a kind of side show.
That may be in part because of the difficulty in agreeing on which segments of the electorate will be most essential in determining the outcome. I tackled that matter nine months ago in a column I am now reprinting below.
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At the heart of the 2024 election lies a strange paradox: The vast majority of voters fall into two camps, pro- and anti-Trump, both rabidly passionate, with tens of millions on each side. And yet — the 2024 election is confidently predicted to come down to the votes of a few hundred thousand in a handful of swing states, and at least some of those voters will be members of neither camp.
This would not be the case were the two tribes not so nearly equal in size and passion. It would probably be more accurate to say that the smaller size of the MAGA camp is compensated for by its fiercer determination. It is remarkably solid, resolutely committed to vote for Donald Trump, no matter what, no exception, no discussion.
One poll after another confirms that these people absolutely do not care whether any new negative information comes to light.
They do not care about any of his poor qualities, lies, liabilities, or deficiencies.
They do not care whether he is convicted of crimes.
If you speak with these people, they will tell you that, straight out.
In short, no matter what he did, or may have done, or might do, no matter how criminal he may be, or vulgar, or dangerously insane, or even unChristian — it just doesn’t matter.
Related: Tragically Funny Quotes on Democracy – WhoWhatWhy
One Trump supporter, Jan Altena, quoted by The New York Times the other day, actually said,
“He’s got principles, that’s the key feature there.”
Now, we know, because the evidence is overwhelming and consistent, that he actually has NO principles. His single guide to decision-making: What will benefit him politically (and financially).
So what this means is: Jan’s either shockingly uninformed, or brainwashed, or, most likely, mightily pissed off about a bundle of indignities and perceived outrages, and Trump is his man to express that.
Some of the grievances actually have a sound basis but many, probably most, that drive Trump’s (and the GOP’s) success were created out of whole cloth or significant distortion of facts and/or the statements and intentions of others, and are promoted by an array of cynical propaganda machines, including right-wing media and social media influencers.
Joe Biden’s son? Bothers them. Trump’s own behavior? Does not.
Biden/Harris on China? Bothers them. Trump profiting personally from China? Does not.
A Democrat partied with Jeffrey Epstein. Bothers them. Trump partied with Epstein. Does not.
The desperate measures poor people take to survive? Bothers them. A rich guy taking illegal and immoral actions simply because he wants to, and can? Does not.
On and on.
Because of this, there is simply nothing at all, including any kind of criminal convictions in Trump’s future, that will ever move these people an inch. So that bloc is locked in. And it votes.
A Small Sliver Decides the Fate of Democracy
A second, comparably-sized group — made up mostly of Democrats, especially Democratic voters of color, but also independents and some old-school Republicans — feels exactly the opposite. It will turn out — various red- and swing-state targeted voter suppression tactics notwithstanding — and it is resolutely opposed to Trump.
That means the next president could be chosen by a third, fairly small sliver of Americans.
We can break that third, wild-card contingent itself into three types:
- Don’t like Trump or Harris, tend to vote, but not sure whom they will vote for.
- Don’t like Trump, but generally don’t vote. The largest group here is probably young people.
- Don’t like Trump, and would like to vote, but probably won’t if the process is made too difficult. That’s where GOP-led voter suppression comes in. Intentional scarcity of operational voting machines, resulting in long lines; promotion of confusing voter information; outright intimidation by partisan poll watchers, etc. All these things help Trump.
Typically, those opposed to Trump will devote the lion’s share of their efforts — and financial resources — to winning over the first of these three groups.
The second group has always been a problem, but this is changing.
As for the third group: This is a chronic problem that has been made worse in recent years as Republicans have organized to discourage certain people — Black people, college students, single working parents, urban dwellers — from coming out to vote, and to make it difficult for those who do.
New impediments have been put in place for this third group, and the GOP is building its army of intimidators and objectors.
Those who believe in empowering all citizens to exercise their franchise are also in motion, but, without extraordinary centralized action and leadership (and funding), their efforts may fall short. To make sure that doesn’t happen, the time to begin planning an unprecedented “Defend the Vote” effort is now.
Indeed, while the fate of our democracy hangs in the balance, it is imperative to recommit to a United States of America where every citizen has the right to vote, unmolested, and understands why it is important — no, urgent — that we all do so.
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