Donald Trump, Supporters, January 6
Supporters of Donald Trump breaching the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Photo credit: Brett Davis / Flickr (CC BY-NC 2.0)

Will Trump supporters stage another insurrection if Joe Biden wins reelection? One-third of Americans think so.

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Just about one-third of Americans believe that Republicans will stage another violent insurrection at the US Capitol if President Joe Biden wins reelection next year, according to a new poll.

That is a staggeringly high number for a country that, until Donald Trump, prided itself on a peaceful transfer of power every four (or eight) years for more than 200 years.

However, large numbers of Americans across the ideological spectrum apparently feel that this is now a thing of the past.

While this opinion was most prevalent among Democrats, more than a quarter of Republicans also believed that it is either somewhat or very likely that “there will be a violent attempt at taking over the Capitol” to stop Congress from certifying the election.

Obviously, seeing how he is the runaway favorite to win the GOP nomination next year, the result could be a reflection of the belief of Americans that Trump, specifically, would incite violence again.

It is interesting that people who voted for the former president in 2020 were least likely to say that another insurrection was upcoming if Biden won.

Among all of the demographics that were quizzed in this poll, conducted by The Economist and YouGov, young people felt most strongly that more violence was on the horizon if the Republican candidate lost.

Nearly half (46 percent) of Americans from the ages of 18 to 29 anticipate another attack on the Capitol.

The poll also found that 18 percent of people believe that Democrats would stage their own insurrection if Biden lost.

With another indictment related to the events of January 6, 2021, looming, a plurality of Americans felt that Trump should be charged with a crime. However, the country is almost evenly split on the issue.

Things are a bit clearer when it comes to whether Trump bears responsibility for what happened. Less than one-third of Americans believe that the former president is completely blameless for what happened. That number would be significantly lower if 62 percent of his own voters hadn’t expressed that they felt that way.

Nearly half of all Americans (and independents) said Trump urged his supporters to engage in violence on that day.

Overall, the country does not approve of what happened on January 6. Three out of 4 Americans said they disapproved of the takeover of the Capitol. This is also a position held by 60 percent of Republicans.

Finally, Americans are split on whether the congressional investigation into the January 6 insurrection and Trump’s role in it was a serious attempt to get to the bottom of what happened or an attempt to embarrass the former president.

Thirty-six percent of respondents said the probe was a good-faith effort while 32 percent believe it was politically motivated. Another 20 percent felt that it was a bit of both.


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