A main obstacle to trade deals and Republican efforts to pass Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill" is that everybody knows the president cannot be trusted.
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If certainty is the lifeblood of a vibrant economy, then the chaos Donald Trump routinely introduces is its kryptonite.
For countries, businesses, and individuals, it’s all about being able to plan ahead to make better choices. For example, on a personal level, it’s much easier to buy a new house when you know that you will keep your job for the next decade. However, if you happen to be employed in an industry undergoing major turmoil, such a big investment would be unwise.
It’s the same for businesses. If you rely on a specific raw material that you can purchase at a certain price, then it’s beneficial to know that your supply is guaranteed.
This is one of the main reasons why the Trump tariffs are so damaging (in addition to resulting in price increases, reducing consumer choice, and leading to slower economic growth): They make it impossible to plan ahead because everything could change in an instant.
Of course, the president and his supporters believe that this need for stability will force other countries to come to the negotiating table on their terms.
That, however, has not happened.
While the White House said it was possible to reach 90 agreements in 90 days, there has only been one so far in a month: a limited deal with the UK that was announced this week.
There is a reason why: Trump can’t be trusted.
According to a new Politico-Public First poll, while a large majority of Americans and Brits alike support the idea of their governments negotiating a trade deal, they don’t think Trump will abide by it.
In addition, almost half of the American respondents, including a quarter of Republicans, saw the US president’s unpredictability as the biggest barrier to trade talks.
Trump’s erratic, fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants style is not just a problem for every foreign government but also for congressional Republicans, which stand ready to do his bidding in almost every case.
However, instead of giving them clear marching orders, the president is sowing confusion at a time when GOP leaders are trying to figure out how to pass his “big, beautiful bill.”
Judge for yourself.
Here is Trump on Friday weighing in on whether Republicans should increase taxes on the wealthiest Americans (which they would be loath to do but which might play well politically):
“The problem with even a ‘TINY’ tax increase for the RICH, which I and all others would graciously accept in order to help the lower and middle income workers, is that the Radical Left Democrat Lunatics would go around screaming, ‘Read my lips,’ the fabled Quote by George Bush the Elder that is said to have cost him the Election,” Trump wrote. “NO, Ross Perot cost him the Election! In any event, Republicans should probably not do it, but I’m OK if they do!!!”
Can you divine what Trump actually wants?
He would accept a tax hike for the rich but is worried Democrats would use that, i.e., something they are demanding at every turn, to hurt him in the election.
Which election?
In any case, nobody has ever lost an election for taxing the rich.
But that’s not all.
In conclusion, Trump says that Republicans should not do the thing that he had just said they would “graciously accept to do” to help regular Americans.
However, if they did do it, then he would be ok with it.
Certainty… it’s a great thing.
In his Navigating the Insanity columns, Klaus Marre provides the kind of hard-hitting, thought-provoking, and often humorous analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
