It would be crazy for fiscal conservatives to derail the vote for House Speaker today... which is why we are not betting against it.
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Speaker elections used to be dull affairs that merely offered limited entertainment to congressional insiders (if that). The party that won the majority in the House of Representatives picked a candidate they liked, and then voted for them so that they could get on with the business of governing.
Seems easy enough. However, times have changed.
With slim majorities and a penchant for chaos rather than a desire to legislate, House Republicans have turned speaker votes into a spectacle.
Two years ago, it took them 15 tries to elect Kevin McCarthy (CA), who was later booted from the job and, following a three-week circus, replaced by Mike Johnson (LA).
On Friday, the incumbent speaker himself will be on the hot seat. However, a lot more is at stake than his personal fortunes.
If Johnson prevails, it means that, for now, House Republicans have fallen in line and the GOP-controlled Congress can get down to passing Donald Trump’s agenda — at least the parts that are palatable to fiscal conservatives.
And, even if this best-case scenario for the incoming president and his loyal speaker were to occur, the next palace revolt will always be right around the corner.
However, if even a handful of the most conservative Republicans vote against Johnson because they don’t believe his promises of austerity and cost cuts that would finally cause the dreaded government to wither on the vine, then it’s right back to dysfunction and anarchy.
Granted, even if the second scenario happens, we could end up with the speaker’s gavel back in Johnson’s hands after a drawn-out process that will likely involve concessions and promises that he may not be able to keep, as well as hard feelings among rank-and-file Republicans who are tired of all of the Freedom Caucus drama.
In any case, his hold on that gavel is always going to be tenuous at best.
That being said, if it’s not Johnson, who is Trump’s choice because he is a loyal bootlicker and because the president-elect fears that the certification of his election victory could be jeopardized if there is no speaker, then who else?
There is nobody… and that’s the most exciting aspect of what happens today.
It almost as though it has to be Johnson because, otherwise, there is no Plan B. Nothing else makes sense.
However, doing the logical thing hasn’t exactly been a hallmark of Freedom Caucus members. Perhaps that’s understandable.
Because, if your goal is for the government to fail, why not start in the House of Representatives?
In his Navigating the Insanity columns, Klaus Marre provides the kind of hard-hitting, thought-provoking, and often humorous analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
