Ahead of the 2016 Iowa caucus, Donald Trump predicted that he wouldn’t lose any voters even if he killed somebody on Fifth Avenue in New York City. In the decade since, the president has largely been proven right. Without losing the support of Republicans, Trump has been impeached, indicted, and convicted; he has sparked an insurrection and attempted a coup; and he has botched a pandemic response that resulted in tens of thousands of Americans unnecessarily losing their lives.

He has not, however, committed murder in plain sight*, and it looks as though the president wants to keep it that way.

After initially saying that he would have no problem with a video being released that shows how the US killed two alleged drug traffickers who had survived an initial strike and were defenselessly clinging to the wreckage of their boat, Trump has since backtracked and left if up to former Fox News TV personality Pete Hegseth to make the determination as to whether that footage will be released.

The secretary of defense, however, does not seem to have any interest in allowing Americans to see what he and his “warfighters” did, which is understandable since that second attack appears to have been a clear violation of national and international law, as well as DOD’s own rules.

Which makes sense, because he would essentially be handing over a key piece of evidence that would be used to prosecute him somewhere at some point… for example, in The Hague.

Therefore, Hegseth probably wasn’t pleased when Trump, who is trying to wash his hands off the entire affair, told a reporter who was asking about the disclosure of the full video that “whatever they [DOD] have, we’d certainly release no problem.”

Well, it would certainly be a problem for his square-jawed Pentagon chief.

Fortunately for Hegseth, the ball is back in his court now, and he has already indicated that he does not want to release the video — purportedly to protect the sources and methods used in the strikes, which is a bit odd, because he and Trump had no problem with sharing videos of that initial attack that killed all but two of the alleged smugglers. It’s tough to see which other sources or methods would be revealed by showing the subsequent strikes.

If all of this sounds a tad familiar, that’s because it is. They are essentially following the playbook Trump used when trying to block the disclosure of the Epstein files.

First, you say you have no problem with releasing them, then you punt to an underling, and then you do everything in your power to stop the disclosure of documents that will be potentially embarrassing and/or incriminating.

Of course, in that case, Congress eventually intervened and forced Trump to sign a measure mandating the release of the files.

It is quite possible that we will see something similar in this case.

There are plenty of Republicans already on the record advocating for the release of the video, and they seem willing to put some pressure on the administration. For example, the National Defense Authorization Act, which was unveiled this week, includes a provision that will cut Hegseth’s travel budget until he makes the footage available to all members of Congress.

In addition, the leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees have said they want to get to the bottom of what happened.

What doesn’t play in the administration’s favor is that Trump has lost some pull on Capitol Hill. His poll numbers are down, and GOP lawmakers are feeling very jittery about their prospects in the upcoming midterms.

Hegseth also hasn’t helped himself. Last week, DOD’s inspector general issued a damning report detailing how he had shared details of an upcoming attack on Yemen with a chat group that included a journalist, and in the process had also violated Pentagon policies on secure communications.

Finally, it bears remembering that the scandal-plagued Hegseth was barely confirmed, and quite a few GOP senators probably had to hold their noses before voting for him.

If any of those Republicans want to remedy that mistake, now would be the time.

*There are plenty of legal experts who argue that all of the boat strikes are illegal and therefore amount to extrajudicial killings. The administration, on the other hand, justifies its actions by pointing to an undisclosed memo that provides legal cover for the strikes. However, even if we assume that the other attacks on suspected drug traffickers are lawful, the “double tap” from September 2 is clearly not and violates the Pentagon’s own rules of war.