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While Republicans were celebrating the better-than-expected growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) on Wednesday, the bigger story is that Donald Trump and the GOP now fully own the economy.

Previously, whenever something bad happened, like the negative growth in the first quarter, they quickly pointed fingers at the Biden administration. 

Now, however, that will no longer be possible, not just because Trump’s tariffs are taking effect or because he signed the “Big, Beautiful Bill” this month that is supposed to usher in a new “golden age,” but also because the administration is taking full ownership of the economy. 

“GDP just surged to 3% and the Trump Economy has officially arrived. Biden’s first quarter is behind us, and growth is already accelerating,” said Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. “President Trump’s tariff policies have drawn historic investments and opened up global markets for US businesses. Congratulations America: 3 percent today, and we’re just getting started.” 

That remains to be seen. 

Experts detected some warning signs below the topline figure, which did beat expectations.

While the economy remains resilient, the GDP growth of the past three months is largely owed to the effects of the tariff policy… and there is no telling how that will ultimately play out. 

It is telling that the market barely responded to the announcement that the GDP was up 3 percent, and fell in the afternoon when the Federal Reserve stated that it would defy Trump again and not lower interest rates.

In his remarks accompanying that decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that focusing on this quarter alone, as Trump and the GOP did all morning, may obscure the overall picture of the economy.

“GDP rose at a 1.2 percent pace in the first half of this year, down from 2.5 percent last year,” Powell stated. “Although the increase in the second quarter was stronger at 3 percent, focusing on the first half of the year helps smooth through the volatility in the quarterly figures.” 

Of course, that’s not how Trump operates. 

He will claim credit for any perceived victory, for example his mediocre jobs numbers that lag behind those of Biden, and deflect blame for any loss.

The latter will no longer be possible now… although that won’t stop Republicans from trying if things go poorly.

And whether they do or not will make all the difference going forward. 

More than anything, the state of the economy will decide how much Trump the country will tolerate. 

If prices are low and good jobs are abundant, then Americans may look the other way when it comes to the president’s chaotic leadership style, the cruel treatment of immigrants, the endless grifting, the deterioration of democracy, and the country’s march toward authoritarianism.

But if not, then there is a good chance that, come next November, no matter how much the GOP is trying to rig the election, a different kind of big beautiful bill will become due for Republicans.