Donald Trump’s appeal to low-information Republicans is that they think he is fighting for them. Democrats are yearning for their own champion — not in 2028, but right now.
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It takes a special kind of person to believe that they have a realistic chance of becoming president. After all, even to be competitive in a primary requires a resume of accomplishments, name recognition, connections, access to vast sums of money, and a healthy (and sometimes unhealthy) amount of arrogance.
That is why the list of candidates usually only includes incumbents, sitting vice presidents, governors, senators, a few members of the House, the odd businessman here and there, and this year, for reasons that are beyond us, this clown (to be fair, nobody in his right mind is considering Stephen A. Smith to be a serious candidate… apart from the ESPN analyst himself, and he is arguably not in his right mind).
It also takes luck and the right timing.
Most people get one shot at mounting a serious campaign or, at the most, two (Joe Biden was an exception to that rule, but his first two runs were 20 years apart, and that would have been it, had he not then also served two terms as vice president).
For example, let’s say you are an up-and-coming star in politics, but the same year you get elected to Congress, somebody from your own party wins the presidency, which means they will run again four years later and, after that, their running mate probably wants a shot.
All of a sudden, you have to wait 12 years before a bid makes sense.
Or look at what happened in 1991, when, after initiating Operation Desert Storm, George H.W. Bush enjoyed approval ratings near 90 percent, which scared off some potential challengers who felt it would be more prudent to keep their powder dry and then hope that VP Dan Quayle would become the next GOP nominee.
Instead, Bush’s approval rating tanked and a little-known governor from Arkansas waltzed into the White House.
With Donald Trump ineligible to run again (in spite of his lamentations), Democrats with presidential aspirations (and their high-priced consultants) will have to start making some decisions.
Could 2028 be their year?
In this case, that is especially tricky because a lot depends on how successful Trump is… not in running the country but rather in turning the US into an authoritarian state.
If it were just about the former, it seems like a lot of Democrats would already be thinking about throwing their hats in the ring. Trump is a lame duck who is highly unpopular, and there is a serious danger that he will crash the US economy, which is the number one way in which he can make Americans finally turn on him and the GOP.
In other words, if the country continues on the current trajectory, a Democrat might be strongly favored to win the next presidential election.
However, there may not be an election… at least not one that is fair.
Because that is also the current trajectory.
And that might really give potential candidates and fancy pants consultants something to ponder.
Before making a decision, most of them will probably want to wait for the midterm election, which is the most important data point between now and 2028.
If Democrats win back the House, then they may be able to put the brakes on Trump’s lawless behavior and embolden one of their own to go up against whoever the Republican frontrunner is.
In other words, this is a tricky cycle for all of those risk-averse consultants who are worried that their respective candidates may make the wrong decision.
Well, we’ll make it easy for them… and save those Democrats some money in consulting fees.
If you are not fighting Trump right now, don’t bother running in 2028.
Say what you want about the president, he has successfully tricked most Republicans into believing that he is fighting for them… against brown people, transsexual athletes, “them,” socialists, foreigners taking advantage of the US, and many others.
He is their champion who is standing up against a woke mob determined to destroy the America they love, i.e., the America of prosperity for white, working-class people.
The fact that Trump, one of history’s great malignant narcissists, has been able to fill that role is a true testament to his talent as a conman and the willingness of his supporters to be duped by him as long as he allows them to be the worst versions of themselves.
But we digress.
While the concerns of MAGA supporters seem comical when viewed through the lens of reality, every real patriot must be gravely concerned about what is happening to their country right now.
They see a maniac who is trying to be the kind of despot the Constitution is supposed to protect the country from.
They see lawlessness, corruption, incompetence, intolerance, and cruelty every single day.
Kidnapping cancer-stricken toddlers, depriving residents of due process, snatching people off the streets for having an opinion, blackmailing companies, targeting political opponents: All of these are fundamentally un-American.
And that doesn’t even take into account the tremendous damage Trump is doing to the economy right now.
All of the people who realize what is going on but are powerless to do something about it (apart maybe from participating in marches, calling their lawmakers, or firing off social media posts) need their own champion… not in 2028 but right now.
It’s the reason why record crowds are flocking to the rallies of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), or why the response to Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-NJ) record filibuster was so overwhelmingly positive.
Now, we don’t know if any of those who are out there fighting Trump right now harbor presidential aspirations.
Sanders is probably too old, Booker may not have the necessary star power, and AOC… well, we’ll get to AOC in a bit.
In contrast to the Democrats who are out there in the trenches, you also have politicians like Gavin Newsom.
California’s governor seems to have his sights set on the Oval Office, and he does have the resume, access to money, name recognition, and required ego.
Even more importantly, he has the tools to fight back.
Yes, Trump is the biggest bully around, but as California’s governor, Newsom oversees what would be the world’s fourth largest economy if the Golden State were a country. That means that he wields considerable power that can even give the federal government serious trouble.
Instead, Newsom has decided to launch a podcast on which he pals around with the likes of far-right influencers like Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk.
In other words, he is not sticking his neck out and instead is trying to move to the center, which is the kind of low-risk approach that establishment Democrats favor.
And then there is AOC.
While consultants and political scientists are trying to dismiss her, we believe that all of them are not reading the room right… just like establishment Republicans and their high-priced consultants didn’t see Trump coming until he steamrolled all of them and took over the GOP.
We are not saying that Ocasio-Cortez is running for president. What we are saying is that, if she did, we believe she would be favored to win the Democratic nomination over somebody like Newsom.
There clearly is an anti-Trump movement brewing, and she is at the very front right now. It’s not just the massive rallies but also the fact that she managed to raise nearly $10 million in the first quarter of a new election cycle.
If that movement builds up steam, and if she is seen as its leader, then she will be favored to win any race in which she chooses to run, especially because she appeals to a younger generation that now represents a huge voting bloc.
The current thinking in DC is that she will next set her sights on primarying Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who represents that cautious and failed establishment approach, in 2028. Polling indicates that she could beat him… if he doesn’t see the writing on the wall and retire first.
Common wisdom is also that, at 35, AOC would be too young to run for president.
We disagree with both… and these are hardly common times.
Yes, it might be a tad early, but if every politician only gets one shot, then we believe hers will come in three years, and anybody dismissing her is doing so at their own peril.
