The GOP Is Putting the ‘BS’ in ‘Unsubstantiated Propaganda’ on Voter Fraud

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As “gotcha” moments go, the administration’s recent campaign to back up Donald Trump’s false claims of widespread voter fraud are pathetic. However, since the president will look for any pretext to take extraordinary steps to assume a greater measure of control over the upcoming midterms, it is important to shed light on the GOP’s disingenuous efforts and put them into context. 

First, let’s look at what the administration is doing and what it is hoping to accomplish.

In recent weeks, the Department of Justice (DOJ) has touted the indictments of noncitizens that  allegedly have either registered to vote or cast ballots. 

These prosecutions are supposed to show that Trump was right all along when he claimed that millions of people had voted against him illegally. 

He first told that lie in 2016 after he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. More recently, the president asserted earlier this year that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) had identified 278,000 noncitizens in just four states who had registered to vote. 

As we have pointed out repeatedly, the facts tell a very different story. Individual voter fraud, both by Americans and noncitizens, is extremely rare. We know this from studies and audits conducted by GOP-run states like Georgia and Utah, as well as a database compiled by the conservative Heritage Foundation. 

And it makes sense that very few people would risk going to prison (or being deported) for casting a single vote. 

It does happen, though. 

In at least some of those cases, however, it stands to reason that noncitizens either registered (or were registered) in error, and that they cast ballots (perhaps even one mailed to them) believing that, as permanent residents, they were now eligible to vote.

Case in point: When getting his driver’s license 20+ years ago, the author of this column, who was a permanent resident at the time, was asked whether he would like to register to vote — and had to point out to the clerk that this would be illegal. 

That doesn’t excuse the people who are ignorant of the law and vote unlawfully — whether intentionally or not — but even in the few times this crime is committed, there are frequently extenuating circumstances such as a technical error or a misunderstanding.

Republicans don’t care about any of that, of course. 

They just want to push the narrative of rampant voter fraud, which is why, whenever DOJ announces one of those prosecutions, senior officials rush to social media and Fox News to pretend that the few cases the administration has found are indicative of a widespread problem. 

They usually do that by making a comment like this: 

The thing they say never happens just keeps on happening.

EVERY illegal vote cancels out the vote of an American citizen. Under @POTUS Trump’s leadership, we’re cracking down on fraud and SECURING our elections for the American people. pic.twitter.com/CqnJ3kCqlI

— Secretary Markwayne Mullin (@SecMullinDHS) September 19, 2026

“The thing they say never happens just keeps on happening,” DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin tweeted this weekend. 

The post includes a clip from an interview with Fox News in which host and former White House spokeswoman Kayleigh McEnany states, “I thought this didn’t happen, but it seems like it does.”

And, because these guys are not overly original, the Republican National Committee’s “Election Integrity” account also used the same language in a post highlighting recent indictments. 

Pious House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Land of Lies), who is always quick to bear false witness for the cause, was quick to add his take. 

“Despite factual evidence, Democrats continue claiming illegal aliens are not voting in US elections,” he stated. “It’s past time for Democrats to join Republicans in SECURING our elections.” 

Well, if they are so eager to talk about it, then let’s talk about it.

First of all, nobody claims that voter fraud “never” happens. With more than 100 million people voting every couple of years, that would be unlikely. However, anybody who isn’t lying about the extent of this problem will correctly point out that it is extraordinarily rare — we are talking about getting-hit-by-lightning rare. 

Republicans, however, to back up Trump’s Big Lie, want to make it sound as though it is a crime as common as speeding or jaywalking. 

Take Mullin’s Fox News appearance. 

“We have 1,620 cases moving right now that are under investigation,” he said. “We have 151 arrests. And we have 300,000 we are looking into, and that list grows every single day.” 

Mullin added that “the president was right when he said there was a tremendous amount of fraud in the election. We continue to see that.”

Do we? 

That last number certainly sounds big (although it is still far short of Trump’s claim of millions voting illegally). But a closer look shows that it’s all smoke and mirrors. 

First of all, the only real figure is the 151 arrests. Unless there are indictments, the rest is just noise. 

Based on what all evidence tells us about noncitizens voting illegally, that 151 is actually a lot. In the grand scheme of things, however, it is inconsequential. 

Assuming that all of those arrested indeed tried to vote unlawfully in 2024, that means that fewer than one in a million ballots cast that year were fraudulent.

That is a tiny number, especially considering that this is clearly a priority for DOJ. 

While Mullin is trying to make this sound like a huge problem, what he is really saying is that, in spite of the administration’s best efforts to validate the president’s Big Lie, DOJ has only been able to charge 151 people (and of course being charged with a crime does not guarantee that that person will be found guilty by a jury).

Or, viewed in the context of what each side in this debate is saying, you have election integrity experts who say that noncitizens voting is very rare, while Trump and the GOP claim it is rampant with, at least, hundreds of thousands (and possibly millions) of cases. 

So, where do you think the number 151 falls on a scale from 1 to millions?

To illustrate this visually, if every number takes up an inch, then 151 would be 12 and 1/2 feet long; a million would be about 16 miles.

Since the numbers aren’t on Trump’s side, his administration has to find other ways to make this sound dramatic, which is why DOJ, Republicans, Fox News, et al. are trumpeting the prosecutions out to the public (we have previously discussed the president’s pattern of using anecdotal evidence when the facts aren’t on his side here).

Let’s take a closer look at those numbers.

On September 18, DOJ announced that it had charged 16 individuals with “illegal voting, illegal voter registration, and related election-fraud schemes across the country.” 

A week earlier, there were four indictments, and earlier this month five more (including an American citizen). 

Altogether, that means 25 in September. In addition, a search of DOJ press releases showed that there were no other announcements in 2026. 

But let’s assume that September is the new standard. At that rate, do you know how long it would take the DOJ to indict the 3 million people who Trump said voted illegally in 2020 (which is the low end of his claim)?

Ten thousand years!

Better get to it, Todd Blanche! 

DOJ’s announcements also make it clear that Trump’s case is even weaker than that. 

While the president and Republicans always make it sound as though it’s undocumented immigrants who are casting ballots illegally, the press releases show that about half of the indicted individuals were lawful permanent residents. 

And, as we noted before, it is entirely possible for someone to be inadvertently registered or to simply not understand which rights their status affords them. In other words, there may not have been any malicious intent. 

In addition, the 25 cases were spread out across the US. 

If these fraudulent votes are such a big problem, with hundreds of thousands of cases in the works and DHS having already identified 278,000 noncitizens in just four states, why are there not more announcements? 

If those numbers were accurate, then charging these people should be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel — it’s a very straightforward crime to prosecute. 

The truth is that it’s all lies. 

Unfortunately, these are lies that Trump may use to declare some kind of election integrity emergency ahead of the midterms to justify sending ICE agents to polling places or curb mail-in voting somehow, or even seize ballots and voting equipment in the post-election period. 

If that happens, it’s important for Americans to know the facts and see these actions for what they are: the president’s desperate attempts to ward off another election defeat by any means necessary.