A Real October Surprise Would Be If Trump Didn’t Interfere in the Midterms

With the first votes already being cast in some states, time is running out for Republicans to change their fortunes before Democrats win control of at least one and perhaps both chambers of Congress. And, as they do ahead of every major election, those handicapping the outcome are wondering whether there will be an “October surprise,” i.e., an event that can change the trajectory of a race.

Historically, these surprises have taken many forms. Nearly 100 years ago, an arson attack on the German Reichstag helped the Nazis win a plurality of the vote less than a week later.

One October surprise happened on Wednesday when a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv was diverted after a suspected hijacking attempt. That’s the kind of thing that might benefit Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with less than a month to go before his country’s election.

Of course, the nature of surprises is that they are, well, surprising, which means you can’t count on one falling into your lap.

Therefore, some leaders take matters into their own hands.

Donald Trump, for example, has spent his second term trying to rig the upcoming midterms.

He has spurred Republicans into launching an unprecedented mid-decade gerrymandering campaign and sought to give himself more powers over the administrations of federal elections — the kind of powers that the Founding Fathers wisely kept away from the executive branch.

However, while those things have given the GOP an edge, it doesn’t look as though they will be enough to win, which is why the only thing that would surprise us this October would be if Trump tried nothing else.

That begs the question of what else the president has up his sleeve.

For one, we believe there will be a few more attempts to influence the administration of the election, for example by sending ICE to polling places in Hispanic districts.

We also expect to see some vote-buying schemes such as Trump’s promise to gift all American adults $5,000 if Republicans win or the $500 “refund” checks that about 1 million Obamacare enrollees will get — along with a presidential letter.

Here is another thing voters should look out for in October: rosy economic data.

Ahead of the election, the administration is slated to release another unemployment report, some inflation gauges, and an estimate of how much the economy grew in the third quarter. And, since there is not a whole lot that Trump can do at this point to curb runaway prices for fuel and other necessities that were caused in large part by his tariffs and an ill-advised war, this would be a great time to fudge the numbers a bit.

Of course, it remains to be seen whether voters can be fooled by reports of a rebounding economy since they are the ones suffering from the affordability crisis.

We also anticipate that a super-politicized Department of Justice may announce a few prosecutions of the president’s enemies.

Oh, and perhaps a war with Cuba.

With all that being said, there are also a bunch of unplanned surprises that will hurt the GOP, like another full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, another ICE killing of an American, or some sort of incident involving yet another artificial intelligence agent running amok.

Or, of course, just Trump being Trump. After all, that is what has put the Democrats in such a strong position to win the midterms.