Russ talks with an American held hostage in Iran — past a crucial election — as part of the “October surprise.”
Everyone seems to like audio, so this week I’m trying something new with my column: a podcast — an interview with John Limbert.
In 1979, John Limbert was a newly appointed foreign service officer posted to the US Embassy in Iran. Just three months later, he was captured by Iranian students. He became one of 52 Americans held hostage in an infamous epoch that may have changed an election — and our larger history: the original “October surprise.”
You may have heard of the term “October surprise.” Nowadays, it’s cited to reference something that happens in the month before a presidential election which has the potential to change the outcome.
But when the term was first coined, it actually related to something that didn’t happen: Americans held hostage by Iran for more than 444 days were not — as they were expected to be — released before the election.
This despite mighty efforts by the administration to get them released. Likely as a result of this, incumbents Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale lost their bid for a second term to Ronald Reagan and George Bush Sr.
As a result, our entire history changed. Reagan and Bush presided for eight years, followed by a Bush Sr. presidency, and later two terms for his son, George W. Bush.
The Bushes, of course, unleashed two wars in the Middle East. Those contributed mightily to the radicalization of the Middle East, and contributed to the endless cycle of recrimination we’re seeing today.
The consequences of what followed Carter’s defeat reached into the United States itself and included the rise of the far right and religious right in this country, the transformation of the Supreme Court, and so much more.
Mounting evidence over the years, laid out in Craig Unger’s new book — Den of Spies: Reagan, Carter, and the Secret History of the Treason That Stole the White House — and other accounts, is persuasive that the Reagan-Bush campaign actually sought and made a deal with the Iranians to hold the hostages until they could take the White House.
The hostages were released within minutes of Reagan’s inauguration.
If, indeed, the GOP was willing to countenance treason to win, then the October surprise was prelude to what we’re witnessing today, with a party nominee who unapologetically and openly embraces America’s enemies.
And those enemies are now helping him take power again, directly meddling in this country’s elections, sowing confusion, disinformation, and discord.
So now is the right time to revisit what took place all those years ago and examine its role in our path to national crisis. Especially because, these days, it’s the Republicans claiming — falsely — that elections are being stolen from them. Those false claims, and other barrages of misinformation still to come…. That’s this year’s October surprise.
