With the two traditional superpowers either unwilling or unable to exert their influence across the globe, there is an opening for China.
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For 80 years, even after the end of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia dominated foreign policy. Sure, China played an increasing role, and the European Union did as well, but Washington and Moscow were the two main players.
Recent events offer the best evidence yet that this is rapidly changing.
This week, it was the surprising toppling of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. More than anything, it showed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stretched the resources of the country so thin that Vladimir Putin’s regime had to drop an ally it had propped up for a decade.
The implication is clear: Moscow has too much on its plate to be able to keep protecting its sphere of influence beyond the territory of the former Soviet Union.
The message out of Washington is similar but also different: With a focus on “America First,” Donald Trump and his allies seem to have no interest in pursuing the policies of the past, when the US used military might and soft power to shape world affairs.
In other words, Russia is willing but unable to exert its influence on the world, while a Trump-led US may be able to but is voluntarily ceding ground.
The winner in all of this will be China.
Over the past decades, Beijing has primarily used money to make friends across the globe (apart from using its rapidly expanding military in its own backyard).
Whether it’s through selling the world cheap goods, funding infrastructure projects in poorer countries, or becoming a player in the social media and entertainment industries, China has established itself as a major player in ways that go beyond merely being an economic superpower.
For example, between 2013 and 2022, Beijing poured close to $700 billion into infrastructures in nearly 150 countries through its Belt and Road initiative. That is almost 10 times as much as the US during that time.
These investments have paid dividends, especially in countries that don’t consider Beijing an adversary.
While China is viewed negatively by regional powers like Japan, South Korea, and India, or economic competitors like the EU and North America, smaller, less-developed countries have a positive view of it, according to a Pew Research poll from earlier this year.
In Asian countries like Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, China is viewed very favorably.
The same is true in many African nations, such as Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana, as well as in South America.
Perhaps even better for Beijing is that young people in most countries tend to view China much more favorably than older generations.
That bodes well for the ambitious superpower, especially at a time when Russia is unable and the US is unwilling to do anything about it.
