In a Twist of Irony, AIPAC Probably Won the Michigan Primary for El-Sayed

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In the end, Abdul El-Sayed’s margin of victory over Rep. Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary will be less than 20,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million cast. This means that even something seemingly minor could have tipped the scales on his behalf.

Or, of course, something major — like the more than $30 million that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) poured into the race on behalf of Stevens.

That kind of money buys a lot of ads, mailers, and yard signs. In this case, however, it was worth even more to El-Sayed because it allowed him to portray his opponent as a shill for foreign and corporate interests.

He made that AIPAC money a central pillar of his campaign and hung it around Stevens’s neck like a millstone at a time when Democratic voters have soured on Israel and, in particular, the regime of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

A poll last month showed that a mere 16 percent of Democrats held a favorable opinion of his government, which is half as much as those who felt the same way about the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank and not much more than those who felt positively about the terrorist group Hamas.

This is likely even more pronounced in a state like Michigan with its (relatively) large and politically active Arab population.  

So, would Stevens have been better off if her support for Israel had been less of an issue? Very likely.

Or, to put it differently, AIPAC just lit more than $30 million on fire just to shoot itself in the foot.

Of course, it is an investment that may pay off in the general election if Republican Mike Rogers can win what will be one of the most-watched Senate races this year.

It remains to be seen whether the Democratic establishment doomsayers are correct who believe that it will be much more difficult for the progressive El-Sayed to prevail in November than the more moderate Stevens.

We believe it would be foolish to dismiss a candidate who withstood an onslaught of outside money and was outspent nine-to-one in his race. Or someone whose message of wanting to be a champion for the working people of Michigan and making their lives more affordable has really resonated with voters who feel abandoned by Democrats in Washington but also realize that they were lied to by a president who promised to lower the cost of living for Americans on day one of his second term but instead has made things worse for them — first with his tariffs and then the Iran War.

Of course, a lot will depend on the lengths that establishment Democrats will go to in order to torpedo El-Sayed to prove a point and protect their own relevance. That would be the same establishment types who have been telling progressive voters for years to hold their noses and vote for centrists because of their “electability.”

Now that it is their turn, however, some of them are threatening to quit the party if it nominates candidates like El-Sayed.

In a hopeful sign for Michigan Democrats and their newly minted Senate nominee, Stevens isn’t one of them.

“I love Michigan and am so proud to have put up my hand to serve,” she said in a statement. “I spoke with Abdul a few moments ago to offer him my full support as we work to defeat Mike Rogers this November.”

For his part, El-Sayed, who has called Israel’s actions in Gaza a “genocide,” and said he would cut off all funding to the Netanyahu regime, extended an olive branch to Michigan’s Jewish voters.

“My commitment to Jewish safety is the same as my commitment to the safety of my own kids,” he said on MS NOW before condemning antisemitism and reminding these voters that they may disagree with him on what happens in Israel, but that they should embrace him for the policies he supports closer to home.

“The things that bring us together are so much bigger than the things that divide us,” he stated. “Whatever we may think about our funding for a government 6,000 miles away, I think we all agree about the funding of our schools that might be two miles away, and the funding for our roads that we drive on to get there, and the funding for our healthcare that we all need and deserve.”

It seems doubtful that AIPAC will feel that way. Instead, the group and its wealthy backers will continue to spend millions of dollars more on defeating the man who would be the nation’s first Muslim senator.

The big question now, in addition to whether establishment Democrats fall in line, is whether it will backfire in the general election in the same way it did Tuesday night.