It is very possible that economists will look back at the March jobs report with nostalgia in a few months. It shows what could have been if Trump had just continued the policies of the previous administration.
|
Listen To This Story
 |
In a robust showing, the US economy beat expectations by adding 228,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday. More than anything, these figures show what would be possible if Donald Trump practiced a hands-off approach and allowed the United States to continue to outpace its peer nations.
However, since he chose to launch a global trade war that is plunging the world into chaos, the positive news from BLS is virtually meaningless because everything is going to change after this week’s “Liberation Day.”
While Trump believes that imposing tariffs on the imports from every country on Earth will lead to a “golden age” for Americans, just about every expert (and certainly investors) think it will end up being one of the most calamitous economic decisions any president has made in US history.
Trump, however, has a different view of reality.
“GREAT JOB NUMBERS, FAR BETTER THAN EXPECTED,” he wrote. “IT’S ALREADY WORKING. HANG TOUGH, WE CAN’T LOSE!!!”
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) April 4, 2025
It’s not clear what is “already working,” and Friday’s news that China will impose its own 34 percent tariff on all American goods shows that it will not be so easy for the president to bully the rest of the world into submission… and that there will likely be plenty of losers.
The most likely outcomes from this trade war (if it is not contained in its infancy) are chaos and pain. The experts at J.P. Morgan, for example, now think that it is more likely than not that Trump will trigger a recession in the US and across the globe.
It bears repeating that all of this is completely unnecessary. After the Biden administration got inflation under control, the US economy grew at a very healthy level in 2024 and was the envy of its peer nations.
All Trump had to do was to not rock the boat. Instead, he is doing his best to sink it.
Therefore, this jobs report is likely more of a reminder of what could have been than anything else, even though Trump himself viewed it as evidence that he is on the right course.
While the figure of 228,000 new jobs is below the growth that Trump himself said should be “almost automatic” for a president, it significantly beat expectations.
The unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent as the health care, social assistance, and transportation and warehousing sectors drove the increase in payrolls.
In addition, the economy also added jobs in retail, which will be a figure to watch as the trade war will likely drive up prices.
Predictably, government employment fell after Elon Musk’s mass layoffs. However, those losses were still moderate at 4,000. This is likely owed to the fact that employees on paid leave and those receiving severance pay are counted as employed, BLS stated.
While Trump last month touted the February jobs report as evidence that he is bringing manufacturing back, that sector did not add any net jobs in March.
It would be nice for Americans if the president looked at this jobs report and changed his mind on whether it is really wise to burn down global trade in order to force foreign companies to make their products in the United States.
This is particularly true because there are not that many people unemployed in the country (and Trump wants to deport millions of those who are), so even if every global corporation started building manufacturing plants in the US, the country is probably lacking the skilled workforce to operate them.
However, the president left no doubt that he is not altering course. On Friday, he wrote on Truth Social that his “policies will never change.”
