Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will not run for senate next year, which makes it much more likely that Democrat Jon Ossoff will get reelected… and that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) will jump into the race.
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Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp announced on Monday that he will not run for Senate next year, depriving Republicans of their preferred candidate in what was supposed to be one of their best pickoff opportunities in 2026.
We are saying “supposed to be” because there is a very good chance that the number of good pickup opportunities for the GOP will be zero if Donald Trump, with the backing of congressional Republicans, continues to eviscerate the rule of law and wreck the economy.
Of course, a lot can happen between now and next fall. However, while political pundits like to hedge their bets, our money is on the GOP getting shellacked in the midterms… at least if Trump’s efforts to rig elections in favor of Republicans are not overly successful.
There is a good chance that Kemp realized this and decided to end his career as one of the nation’s most popular governors (which is particularly noteworthy because it is such a closely divided state) instead of becoming the latest Republican to lose a Georgia Senate race because of Trump.
The president is actually working on an impressive streak.
In 2020, after his loss to Joe Biden, Trump made Georgia one of the main targets of his attempted coup and, likely, cost Republicans the Senate majority when Jon Ossoff (D) and Raphael Warnock (D) prevailed in a pair of runoff elections held the day before the January 6 insurrection.
Instead of helping the two GOP candidates, Trump, who was obsessed with overturning the results of the presidential election, proved to be a drain on the race, and the two Democrats prevailed.
Then, in another winnable race, Trump’s hand-picked candidate Herschel Walker lost to Warnock in 2022.
Therefore, it would be par for the course if the president, once again, cost the GOP a Georgia Senate seat.
However, we believe it won’t come to that… and Kemp seems to agree.
“Over the last few weeks, I have had many conversations with friends, supporters, and leaders across the country who encouraged me to run for the US Senate in 2026. I greatly appreciate their support and prayers for our family,” Kemp said in a statement. “After those discussions, I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family.”
He is not the first top candidate in a purple(ish) state to forgo a Senate campaign this cycle.
Last month, former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu (R) also announced that he would not run for his state’s open Senate seat next year.
It’s tough to blame either one of them.
Not only is Trump creating political headwinds for GOP candidates, he also demands absolute loyalty and subservience, which is probably not a requirement former governors are used to.
Of course, they would never say so.
“Over the last few weeks, I have had many conversations with friends, supporters, and leaders across the country who encouraged me to run for the US Senate in 2026,” Kemp stated. “I greatly appreciate their support and prayers for our family. After those discussions, I have decided that being on the ballot next year is not the right decision for me and my family.”
He then noted that he had spoken with the president and informed him of his decision, which probably was a satisfactory phone call for the governor.
After all, Trump last year criticized not only Kemp on the campaign trail, but also his wife.
And, while the governor pledged to work with the GOP to elect a Republican, his decision makes this unlikely — not just because he would have been the most competitive candidate but also because his announcement now opens the door for one of the least competitive ones: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who has been flirting with a Senate run.
While we believe that Ossoff is favored to win regardless of which Republican he faces, a matchup with Greene would make it much more likely that he will get reelected, even if the race turns out to be competitive.
It would also make the contest significantly more entertaining, which is why we hope that she decides to run and gets Trump’s endorsement.
As for Kemp, we are no fan of his record as Secretary of State.
As part of our award-winning coverage of the 2018 gubernatorial race in the Peach State, we uncovered many instances of voter suppression and other shady decisions Kemp made while in that office.
However, he and other Georgia Republicans stood up to Trump when he tried to overturn the 2020 election and for that, he deserves some credit.
In his Navigating the Insanity columns, Klaus Marre provides the kind of hard-hitting, thought-provoking, and often humorous analysis you won’t find anywhere else.
