New Study Trumps Trump: Shocking Decline in Mexican Immigration

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A new study shows that Donald Trump’s shrillest talking point—a key source of anger and a political motivator of many Americans–is flat out wrong.

That brown horde of unsavory characters pouring across the border to steal jobs from native-born Americans?   An exaggeration so egregious it might more accurately be called a lie.

The study, by demographers from two universities and first reported by Reuters, has gotten little attention. Yet the findings are astonishing and important: immigration from Mexico is way down.

There has been a whopping 57 percent decline in the number of Mexicans crossing the border.

The research, which combines all immigration–legal and illegal—compared a four-year period ending in 2007 to one ending in 2012…and found a whopping 57 percent decline in the number of Mexicans crossing the border.

In fact, immigration peaked way back in 2003.

Mexicans are staying away for a variety of reasons. Jobs in the construction industry dried up with the US recession. The Mexican economy is improving. And Mexicans are having much smaller families than they did in the past, which is causing financial pressures to decline further. It all demonstrates the apparent benefits of remaining at home.

Mexican immigrants today often look nothing like the bedraggled and desperate that Trump says undermine the American way of life. According to the report’s lead author, Rogelio Saenz, dean of the College of Public Policy at the University of Texas at San Antonio, they tend to have more in net assets and in many cases they have arrived via special visa programs that require they make job-creating investments. In other words, more like prospective buyers of Trump condos than like the laborers who construct them.

Why Unreported?

What is most astonishing is that a game-changing development like this report can be blithely ignored by the American media horde and fulminating rating-chasing talking heads covering the campaign war of rhetoric.

The reason? The Donald is just the gift that keeps on giving–and maybe nobody wants to turn off that particular spigot of controversy too soon. The supreme irony is that Trump himself never intended to make a big deal out of the issue until a media outlet spotted the potential, and then Trump decided to ride it for all it was worth.

It’s worth plenty–a lot more, apparently, than the truth is worth.

Related front page panorama photo credit: Donald Trump (Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia).

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20 responses to “New Study Trumps Trump: Shocking Decline in Mexican Immigration”

  1. Courdeleon02 says:

    Sadly this article is false. It does not account for the illegal immigration and says nothing about the fact that most of the new illegals are from Central America which Mexico is allowing to traverse its land and pour into the U. S. Stop the Liberal lies and half truths

  2. SURFRUNNER D says:

    This is a false premise. Whether up or down in terms of raw numbers, immigrants are still pouring in illegally, taking tax dollars, overloading prisons and hospitals, clogging our freeways, displacing our jobs, taking our land.

  3. Steve Sperdacion says:

    conservatives always have to lie to their base because the truth would be unpopular. they are really against abortion because they want their to be more people around for less jobs, that drives wages down. profit for the rich
    immigration is down but repubs pretend it is a big deal. Why? Encourage racism. Get us to fight over a meaningless line on a map instead of fighting our true enemies. Oligarchy.

  4. (Comment by @KenMcCarthy) Trump is an idiot for several reasons. One of them is that Mexican emirgration to the US is way down

  5. From Our Facebook Page says:

    (Comment by reader Eric Folmsbee) Why immigrate when you can potentially get in for free. Immigrants have never been the problem it is illegal aliens who are not tracked so you cannot count them.

    • Steve Sperdacion says:

      why would you repost an idiot’s comment from twitter that is debunked in your own article.

      The research, which combines all immigration–legal and illegal—compared a four-year period ending in 2007 to one ending in 2012…and found a whopping 57 percent decline in the number of Mexicans crossing the border.

  6. From Our Facebook Page says:

    (Comment by reader David Quinonez) It’s not Mexicans coming over it’s pepole from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

  7. From Our Facebook Page says:

    (Comment by reader Loo Courtland Rockwell) The US economy slowed down…the American Dream became the Mexican Dream…but they weren’t expecting construction jobs to drop off…I wonder how many Mexican scientists and doctors come here?

  8. Chuck (Smithfix) Smith says:

    From the article: “There is no longer the excess labor force that Mexico had just a few decades ago,” he said.

    Yeah, they have already come here so the flood has slowed to a river. And you disagree with Trump? I don’t get it.

    • Steve Sperdacion says:

      you and trump should support fixing the economy again then. Like how it was good before the new deal was dismantled. last time immigration was up. Immigration being down is a sign of a bad economy. But let’s whine about the non-problem instead.

    • Steve Sperdacion says:

      first step is to stop making excuses. you just showed what the problem is, good work, that is always needed before figuring out a solution. I would point you to the opposite of fascism, socialism.

    • Chuck (Smithfix) Smith says:

      And just how can we get there? You suggest I only point out problems, not so. I believe it is far to late to reverse course as a Nation. Apathy and ignorance have allowed the central government to gain too much power which they will not relinquish without a fight.
      So what to do? Ge truly active, write a bog, make YouTubes, get a Blog Talk Radio Show, and above all Prepp. A hungry man is a vassal and with kiks he can justify any evil to feed them. We need allies, shear numbers are on our side- if more people talk to people.
      “You Can’t Hide, Prepper. So it is time to Lead”

    • Steve Sperdacion says:

      you only pointed out problem in the comment you made that I responded to. But still, that is a good start. You understand thing aren’t perfect. But again, never make excuses to do nothing. How can we get there? Let’s look to history as a guide. Need revolution. Keep stating facts. Never says something like “it’s far too late to reverse course”.

  9. (Comment by reader @klejdys) It’s really the 20M that are already here that is the issue; newer illegals coming from further S (El Sal, Hondo, etc).

  10. (Comment by reader @Conspiracy_X) Sounds to me like most of the ones who wanted to come over already have then…The border is totally wide open, after all.

  11. American Girl says:

    Really? Take a look at the schools – the percentages of Latinos vs white/black children. Then look at massive amounts of money being spent just to teach them English. There is no way immigration is down from 12 years ago. Report is either skewed or flat out totally incorrect.

    • johndissed says:

      There is no way you could possibly know if the study is skewed or incorrect from your vantage point. That’s why studies are done. Take a look at the schools? How many schools have you taken a look at? This is emotional and part of the problem. Facts are not being considered. It is politicians getting elected using tactics of race-baiting/scapegoating based on lies.

    • American Girl says:

      Yes, the schools – I have checked them out – have you? There’s also one going in down the street and announcements are in Spanish & Arabic. Maybe you should check out your local school budget to see how much money is being spent to teach them English, which pulls time and money from average and honor students! Take a look at California stats as well compared to 30 years ago.

    • Jonn Mero says:

      Sadly, it sounds like you are among the uninformed, under-educated Americans who understand little and know even less. Just the type the incompetent ‘leaders’ in the US need, people relying on Fox News and government lies.

    • American Girl says:

      And you are one that is drinking the kool-aid. I do NOT follow Fox for my news – they’re for amnesty and are being led by Karl Rove, who most of us despise. Check out your local school so you can become informed!