Time is running out for Kyiv. When Trump takes over in January, will he force Ukraine to accept a ceasefire on Putin’s terms?
|
Listen To This Story
 |
North Korea has supplied the Russians with nearly 8 million artillery shells and dozens of ballistic missiles in recent months, and, according to South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence services, Pyongyang may have provided 10,000 or more soldiers to fight alongside Russian troops.
A commander of a territorial brigade in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region sees Vladimir Putin’s decision to add North Korean troops to his effort to defeat Ukraine as yet another indication of Moscow’s weakness. “But every armed soldier represents danger,” adds Viatcheslav. “Even if they have limited military experience, I’ve learned since the start of this war never to underestimate the enemy.”
Despite the brave talk, the added threat from the North Koreans marks a deeply troubling turn for Kyiv and its Western allies, especially with Donald Trump due to resume the US presidency in January.
Although neither Pyongyang nor Moscow has acknowledged the North Korean presence on Russian soil, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that a contingent of approximately 11,000 soldiers reportedly has already confronted the Ukrainian army in the Kursk region, which Ukraine partially occupied in August.
The missions assigned to these soldiers — some allegedly from Kim Jong Un’s special forces — remain unclear. However, in early November, Kyiv asserted that the North Koreans had already begun experiencing “losses.”
‘The North Koreans Lack Our Experience’
Viktor Kevluk, a reserve colonel of the Ukrainian armed forces and analyst at the Centre for Defence Strategies in Kyiv, believes that the presence of North Korean soldiers highlights two key points: the shortage of Russian troops and Moscow’s desire to show it is not diplomatically isolated.
However, Kevluk warns, “A contingent of 10,000 soldiers can significantly bolster any group on the front line and that can shift the balance of power, which will affect the course of the fighting.”
He notes that these soldiers will probably also face significant challenges, including poor coordination owing to differences in training, and communication issues caused by the language barrier.
The retired colonel also stresses that North Korea may hope to profit more from Moscow than the other way around. “The Korean leader is well aware of the hopelessness of the Kremlin adventurers,” he says, “and he is pursuing North Korean national interests: gaining access to nuclear and missile technologies, as well as an inflow of hard currency.”
Viatcheslav, the Ukrainian commander, also believes these battles will be difficult for the North Koreans. Unlike the Russians and Ukrainians, who have been fighting for nearly three years, these soldiers lack experience in high-intensity combat.
“They are not suited for this type of operation or the weather conditions in Ukraine. But now that they’re here, we have to deal with their presence,” he says.
Kevluk, however, does not believe that the North Korean troops will be directly involved in combat on Ukrainian territory. Once Ukrainian forces expel Russian troops from the Kursk region, he thinks that the North Korean troops will be used to bolster Russian defenses along the border.
“Of course,” he says, “Korean officers will be in the HQs of the Russian troops, studying combat experience. I think the Korean leadership is aware of the consequences of the appearance of their soldiers on Ukrainian territory. Kim is a pragmatist, not a suicide bomber.”
Western Reaction
In response to this escalation, Western allies of Kyiv, distracted by the upcoming US elections, condemned the presence of North Korean troops in late October but refrained from following up with concrete actions.
However, on November 17, President Joe Biden used the North Korean presence to justify giving permission to Ukraine to fire US-supplied ATACMS tactical missiles deep inside Russian territory.
Within hours, Kyiv began firing the missiles at targets in Russia. Alongside their French and British equivalents — Storm Shadow and SCALP — the ATACMS hit a munitions depot in the Bryansk region. Moscow admitted that at least one of the ATACM attacks knocked out a key air defense system and hit an airbase near Kursk.
Russia responded by firing its Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro. The Rubezh is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, but so far has been armed only with conventional explosives. The attack failed to cause significant damage.
Ukraine had been asking for permission to use the ATACMS against targets in Russia since 2022, and Kyiv was obviously pleased with the authorization. But there was also concern about the continued supply of missiles. Ukrainian parliament member Oleksiy Goncharenko remarked: “The issue is not just authorization, but also the number of missiles we will receive. The question is whether our allies will supply us with enough to make a difference.”
That concern extended to the field as well. Mikhaelo, a tank unit commander engaged on the Pokrovsk front, was delighted with the US decision but stressed that hundreds of these missiles would be needed to achieve a strategic impact capable of slowing the Russian advance on all fronts. “Another question is whether Trump will allow us to continue using them, or if he will revoke this authorization altogether. At least by the time he enters the White House, we will have had the time to use them wisely,” Mikhaelo said.
The most likely targets, Kevluk said, will be “Russian air bases, operational depots, ports, air defense systems, helicopter bases, and command posts.” This, Mikahelo says, will allow Ukraine to push Russia’s air fleet out of range and mitigate the massive use of glide bombs, which have been a major tactical advantage for Russian forces since February.
Kevluk, however, points out, “The Russians, who also watch CNN and Euronews, will adapt to this development.”
It is telling that, after a thousand days of grinding war, Ukrainian soldiers, weary and fatigued, no longer believe in game-changing masterstrokes based on the arrival of “new” superweapons.
“Nothing is going to shift the front but the mass of soldiers, planes, weapons, and shells,” stresses Viatcheslav. “It’s the same with the ATACMS — if we have dozens of them, it will help us. If we have hundreds of them, it will shift the front line in our favor. But are the Europeans and Americans ready for this scenario? Sometimes I wonder.”
