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Most Americans probably have little idea of Moldova’s geographic location, much less its importance to current efforts to obtain a ceasefire in Ukraine.  

Bordered by Ukraine on the east and Romania to the west, Moldova has had a tumultuous modern history. Its territory and the majority of its population share a common history, language, culture, and religion with the citizens of neighboring Romania. 

Moldovans have deep Romanian and Slavic roots. During medieval times the territory was influenced by Ukrainian and East Slavic states, and later it experienced two Russian occupations. The last of these occupations, by the former Soviet Union, had the greatest impact on its psychology, language, and sense of identity. 

With a relatively small population of only 2.4 million citizens, Moldova willingly hosted the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country in Europe, all the while technically maintaining its neutrality. 

Moldovans, renowned for their hospitality, welcomed entire families from Ukraine into their own homes. 

Twin Applications for EU Membership 

Ukraine and Moldova both submitted applications for European Union (EU) membership after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. For nearly a decade before that, possible membership had been discussed with nothing much happening. Real progress in accepting either country began in earnest only after the Russian invasion. Since then, the situation has changed radically, and the two countries, especially tiny Moldova, have made substantial efforts to shorten their paths to joining the EU.  

Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president and an open ally of Ukraine, who handily won reelection last year, is strongly in favor of Moldova joining the EU, but her party risks losing its parliamentary majority in an upcoming legislative election slated for September 28. Russian cyberhackers have been flooding Moldovan social networks with false information in an effort to sabotage pro-EU members of parliament. French President Emmanuel Macron, along with Germany’s chancellor and Poland’s prime minister, made a recent visit to Moldova to express Europe’s support for Sandu. 

A Common European Path but Different Agendas and Progress

Although EU membership for both countries was initially seen as a package deal, Ukraine and Moldova have different agendas, and the reforms needed to align each country with EU standards have followed different trajectories. 

Ukraine has had to endure military aggression for more than three years, and it is fighting an existential war that puts its sovereignty and independence in doubt. Virtually its entire budget is focused on defense. Moldova’s security depends almost entirely on the Ukrainian military and Ukraine’s capacity for continuing to resist Russian pressures. 

Moldova owes not only its security but also its path to closer ties with Europe to the Ukrainian military.

When Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, a number of Russian officials, including deputies in the state Duma, as well as pro-Putin journalists threatened to expand the war in Ukraine to the eastern and southern borders of Moldova. They called for essentially annexing the regions of Moldova with many Russian-speaking inhabitants — Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia (ATUG) — both controlled by politicians with pro-Russian views. 

Moldova owes not only its security but also its path to closer ties with Europe to the Ukrainian military.

A Change of Heart in the Face of Circumstance

Moldova now wants to separate its European Union application from Ukraine’s in order to move forward with its membership in the EU.

Out of respect for Ukraine’s defenders, Moldova has refrained from saying publicly that it wants to follow its own path to EU membership, but it’s clearly concerned that the crisis in Ukraine is holding back its EU agenda. 

At the same time, Moldova is aware that at least two European Union states, Hungary and Slovakia, pose obstacles to Ukraine’s membership in the EU. While Viktor Orbán’s Hungary outright opposes Ukraine’s membership, Slovakia oscillates between supporting Ukraine’s membership in the EU, but not in NATO, and simply opposing Ukraine’s membership in both organizations. 

Unless Moldova can separate its application from Ukraine’s, it risks being blackballed from future EU membership because of such Ukraine-oriented factors. Hence the need to decouple from Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán even organized a so-called “referendum” of Hungarians to stop Ukraine’s accession to EU membership. As an EU member, Hungary has veto power to stop any expansion toward the east. 

Bulgaria and Romania tacitly support decoupling Moldova’s application from Ukraine’s, arguing that it is up to each state to create its own agenda, and determine its own path to joining the EU. 

The relationship between Moldova and Romania has similarities to the relationship between Cyprus and Greece or between Austria and Germany. Since Romania is Moldova’s most important economic partner and its major advocate on the international stage, its opinion has to be considered carefully.

Decoupling Is a Real Possibility

Moldova is better positioned for EU membership than Ukraine in many respects, which increases the prospects of decoupling going forward. Although they promote the same values and have the same European aspirations, the two nations are making different progress on various issues. 

One of the main reasons Hungary opposes EU membership for Ukraine is its contention that Ukraine discriminates against the Hungarian-speaking minority in Transcarpathia, a region in western Ukraine. Orbán also feels that Ukraine fails to make sufficient or consistent efforts to preserve the Hungarian language in Ukrainian communities that have large Hungarian populations. 

By comparison, Moldova has some of the most democratic laws when it comes to ethnic and linguistic minorities — even offering one of them, the Gagauz, a territorial-cultural autonomy. At the same time, to facilitate integration and interethnic harmony, the Russian language enjoys a special status in Moldova — as does the official state language, Romanian — and most Moldovans also know Russian. 

Russia has not given up trying to draw Moldova into its post-Soviet sphere of influence and is waging a highly aggressive effort to sway the sympathies of Moldovans. 

Moldovan citizens and politicians like to compare their country to Switzerland, which has at least four official languages. 

If it can manage to decouple from Ukraine, Moldova plans to join the ranks of Balkan states like Montenegro, which hope to attain EU membership by 2029. 

Crucial Elections

On September 28, Moldova will hold parliamentary elections, which are seen as crucial for Moldova’s European path and the maintenance of its fragile democracy. 

Russia has not given up trying to draw Moldova into its post-Soviet sphere of influence and is waging a highly aggressive effort to sway the sympathies of Moldovans. 

Sandu is confident that if Moldova manages to maintain its pro-European path, EU membership will become a reality in the next four years. 

Constantin Dicusar is a Moldovan journalist and historian.