France’s far right National Rally is expected to cry foul after its charismatic leader, Marine Le Pen, is banned from participating in future elections.
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PARIS — French judges were legally justified in banning the far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen from participating in elections for the next five years, but their action is also likely to result in political fallout that could have unexpected repercussions throughout France and the European Union.
Although Le Pen is undoubtedly guilty of the charges that she and other party members illegally diverted funds from the European Parliament and used them to support the National Rally’s local politics in France, Le Pen insists that the decision to ban her from a future French presidential election was purely political. She will no doubt have many supporters who agree with her.
Until the decision by French judges, Le Pen was considered a leading candidate with an excellent chance of winning France’s next presidential election scheduled to take place in 2027. Her elimination deprives the party, formerly known as the National Front, of its most charismatic leader. That leaves Jordan Bardella, the party’s current president as its likely candidate. Bardella had been expected to run for the post of prime minister.
While Bardella is a rising star in the party, he is only 29 years old and lacks the heft of Le Pen. Le Pen, who along with other members of the National Rally, was convicted of diverting several million euros provided by the European Union for the National Rally’s use in France, has said that she will appeal the court’s decision, but in France that could take years. No one expects her to do actual jail time. Eliminating Le Pen from the party’s list of candidates is likely to lead to a change in the party’s branding and identity, but the right-wing voters who resonated with Le Pen will remain, even if the leadership changes.
A number of French commentators, including some of her longtime opponents on the left and the right feel that the court went too far and is likely to fuel anti-government conspiracy theories among the party’s working-class voters who mostly favor Le Pen. Critics of the judgment included some members of the “Conseil de la Magistrature,” an important left-of-center union that represents French magistrates.
As a result, Le Pen and her National Rally party are likely to gain some support when those elements of French media that are friendly to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin cry foul in the manner of Fox News. Among the loudest voices are the publishing empire of billionaire French businessman Vincent Bolloré, in sync with Putin’s longtime leverage on France’s extreme right which considers no trolls barred.
All of this takes place at one of the worst times for France, which faces troubled financial ratings, and for Macron whose parliamentary support in France’s National Assembly is wobbly at best.
The critical turning of tables two years ahead of France’s highly unpredictable elections, could help the extreme-right National Rally snatch victory from the jaws of Le Pen’s current political defeat. That would add more volatility as Europe embarks for the first time on a costly independent defense build-up triggered by Trump’s desertion of America’s traditional alliances in Western Europe.
Jean-Marc Illouz is a former Washington correspondent and bureau chief for France’s second television channel.
