Saturday Hashtag: #TheBiggerQuantumThreat
Quantum Computers Could Break Bitcoin Encryption Within 5 Years, But That’s Not The Real Threat
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Quantum computing is often described as the emerging field at the intersection of computational science and the principles of quantum mechanics, which governs the behavior of incredibly small particles like atoms and photons.
Unlike classical computing, which relies on binary states (0/1, on/off), quantum computing leverages quantum bits, or qubits, that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This phenomenon, known as superposition, means that quantum computers can process far more information in parallel compared to the single-threaded operations of classical computers.
Where traditional computing functions like a basic light switch, toggling just between “on” and “off,” quantum computing through superposition functions more like a dimmer switch, operating in a continuous range of on/off states simultaneously.
This enables quantum computers to work geometrically, solving multiple problems that, even individually, are far beyond the capabilities of the most advanced classical binary systems.
However, many — including the Government Accountability Office — have raised alarms about the catastrophic impact that quantum computing could have on national security and the global economy, especially in areas like cryptography, which underpins much of our digital infrastructure.
A key concern in this area is that the US has a shortage of quantum talent, leaving it vulnerable in the race to secure critical digital infrastructure.
Cryptocurrency’s Big Vulnerability
The cryptocurrency market is incredibly volatile but has recently been valued at $3.63 trillion. The biggest player is Bitcoin which relies on a cryptographic algorithm called ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm). However, quantum computers, using Shor’s algorithm, could easily break this algorithmic encryption within five years, exposing private keys and enabling theft.
The threats from quantum algorithms include:
- Shor’s algorithm threatens digital security by breaking traditional encryption methods used for decades, including those protecting banking systems and government communications.
- Grover’s algorithm weakens symmetric-key encryption, widely used in online banking and military systems. While increasing key sizes can mitigate this, it requires significant computational power and changes to encryption protocols.
Although quantum computing is still in its early stages it is progressing exponentially. It has the potential to destabilize the entire blockchain network, which underpins all cryptocurrencies that rely on cryptographic algorithms for security and transaction validation.
However, the risks of quantum computing extend far beyond just blockchain networks and cryptocurrencies
The Broader Quantum Issues
Global Financial Systems: Encryption secures financial systems worldwide. Quantum computing could break this encryption, exposing critical infrastructure — from banking to stock exchanges — to attack. This scenario, known as Q-day, could trigger global economic chaos.
National Security: Governments rely heavily on encryption to protect military, intelligence, and diplomatic communications. Quantum computing could compromise classified information, weakening defense and geopolitical stability.
Critical Infrastructure: Power grids, health care systems, and other critical infrastructure depend on encryption for protection against cyberattacks. Quantum advancements could render current security systems obsolete, jeopardizing public safety and economic stability.
There are also profound issues about this tech that are concerning and the reality that many experts see quantum computing as a WMD-level threat that should be treated with the caution of the Manhattan Project.
The Global Quantum Race
The Global Quantum Working Group (GQWG) within the AdvancedTechnology Academic Research Center is advancing quantum technologies by bringing together experts from government, industry, and academia.
However, China — the leading player in quantum research — is excluded from this initiative. China has made substantial investments, with $15.3 billion allocated to quantum technologies — far outpacing the projected $3.7 billion invested by the US government.
Recent US Quantum Funding Breakdown ($989.9 million):
- The National Institutes of Standards and Technology: $13.9 million
- The CHIPS Act of 2022: $32 million
- The National Science Foundation: $39 million
- The Department of Energy: $65 million
- DARPA: $140 million
- Department of Defense: $700 million annually
Other agencies, like NASA, and private sector investments (e.g., through the US Innovation and Competition Act), also contribute to the national quantum budget. But this is still a fraction of China’s spending.
This funding disparity highlights the competitive landscape and underscores the need for increased collaboration and investment in quantum research.
The Need for Quantum-Safe Cryptography
Experts emphasize the urgent need for quantum-resistant cryptography to safeguard global security. Efforts by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are underway, but implementing these systems will take time and requires international cooperation. Without quantum-safe solutions, the consequences could be disastrous.
Quantum computing holds enormous potential but also poses substantial risks. The world must act swiftly to develop quantum-resistant cryptography before quantum computers can compromise global security, economic stability, and critical infrastructure. The race to secure the digital future is one we cannot afford to lose.
Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin? Google’s Latest Chip Sparks Fresh Debate
From Decrypt: “Google’s new Willow quantum processor has reignited discussions around blockchain security and their ability to withstand rapid advancements.”
Is Quantum Computing a Cybersecurity Threat?
From American Scientist: “Cybersecurity researchers and analysts are rightly worried that a new type of computer, based on quantum physics rather than more standard electronics, could break most modern cryptography. The effect would be to render communications as insecure as if they weren’t encoded at all. Fortunately, the threat so far is hypothetical.”
Quantum Computers Could Crack Bitcoin. Here’s What It Would Take
The author writes, “Quantum computers could cause unprecedented disruption in both good and bad ways, from cracking the encryption that secures our data to solving some of chemistry’s most intractable puzzles. New research has given us more clarity about when that might happen.”
Quantum Computers May Break Bitcoin by 2030, But We Won’t Know About It
From Cryptonews: “Quantum computers might sound like another buzzword in the tech world, yet their threat to cryptocurrency is very real and approaching fast. Scientists may differ on the timeline, but they all agree: ‘Q-day’ is not a matter of if, but when. We’ve spoken to quantum experts around the world to hear the latest estimates on when it will happen, what can be done to protect cryptocurrency, and whether these powerful machines could somehow benefit the crypto world.”
VIDEO: Will Bitcoin Be HACKED In 2-4 Years From Quantum Computing
The author writes, “The All In podcast members say that the new Willow chip from Google can threaten bitcoin’s encryption.”
US Unveils New Tools To Withstand Encryption-Breaking Quantum. Here’s What Experts Are Saying
From the World Economic Forum: “[In August], a government lab in the United States released three highly anticipated encryption algorithms that were built to withstand cyberattacks from quantum computers. The encryption standards, two of which were developed by IBM, can be used to ‘secure a wide range of electronic information, from confidential email messages to e-commerce transactions that propel the modern economy,’ the US Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) said in a statement.”
WEF Global Risks Report 2024 Includes Quantum Computing and AI
The author writes, “The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 provides a detailed analysis of the challenges and risks in a world facing rapid technological change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. It emphasizes the critical role of emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing, in shaping future risks and opportunities.”
China’s Long View on Quantum Tech Has the US and EU Playing Catch-Up
The author writes, “China sees quantum technology as pivotal in global science and technology (S&T) competition and has stepped up government spending on scientific and industrial development to about USD 15 billion.”
