How Putin Is Getting the Better of the West

Analysis of the Wily Russian’s strategy

Vladimir Putin. Photo credit: MARIAJONER / Wikimedia (CC BY-SA 4.0)

ANALYSIS

Since Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, the West has struggled mightily to isolate the Russian leader. So far, though, the crafty former intelligence officer has employed a range of clever strategies that have put him right at the center of the action.

His decision to bomb targets in Syria to support embattled President Bashar al-Assad not only caught the West off guard but it also made the Russian strongman into a bigger player with regard to the country’s future.

The timing of his military intervention, on September 30, could hardly have been better. The refugee crisis has made Syria a top issue in Europe right now. And for the time being, any solution that will help stem the flow of refugees to the EU would have to involve Putin.

Putin’s cut-rate variant on shock-and-awe is exemplified less by military muscle and more by the triumphant sarcasm of his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who offered to provide air support for the moderate “patriotic opposition” on condition that the US identify those moderates on the ground.

Russia, which could not compete symmetrically with the US militarily, must rely on more subtle chessboard moves. One of the early effects of the Russian psychological operation has been to force into the open previously secret American operations in Syria, as well as the fact that much of the Syrian uprising has been taken over by extremists.

It all comes right out of the so-called Gerasimov Doctrine of non-linear war: Keep your opponents off balance and change tactics frequently, probing for weaknesses to exploit. Tactics-wise, Putin has pulled quite a few rabbits out of his hat: a no-fly zone of his own, sophisticated military hardware ranging from cruise missiles and fighter planes to powerful communications jammers, successful diplomatic initiatives — in 2013, he was instrumental in forging an agreement that resulted in the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles — and most recently a surprise visit by Assad to Moscow.

Low Cost But Effective Tactics

Though this could change in the future, his campaign in Syria so far has been low-cost and risk-averse with respect to the lives of Russian personnel, especially as compared to the ruinous American adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Iranians and the Syrians, along with their allies, are supplying the cannon fodder for the ground fighting. The majority of the bombs Putin’s air force is dropping are said to have come from the abundant old Soviet stockpiles, which one day soon would need to be disposed of anyway.

Yet he has already received major bang for his ruble: all of a sudden, Russia is again a player to be reckoned with in the Middle East; even Iraq, which spent most of the last decade as a virtual US colony, is now considering asking for Russian air strikes against ISIS. Arguably, the Kremlin stole the thunder of the US administration’s nuclear deal with Iran. (Indeed, if anyone imagined the ayatollahs would cozy up to Uncle Sam, they are now more closely than ever cooperating with Russia in Syria.) Meanwhile, US allies from Jordan to Israel to the Syrian Kurds are lining up to cooperate with Moscow.

“Russia is taking advantage of Western confusion to place itself firmly at the center of Middle East politics,” says Joshua Landis, a prominent Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma who runs the Syria Comment blog. “I think the United States doesn’t know what to do.”

In a Twist, Russia Seizes Peacemaker Role

Among Putin’s successes, surely one that deserves more attention is how Russia has made itself indispensable to ending the Syrian civil war — a development that plays into disagreements between the United States and Europe over priorities.

This is particularly striking at a time when a growing refugee wave, spearheaded by those fleeing Syria, is exposing what some consider Europe’s own xenophobia and undemocratic impulses (even threatening to destroy the border-free Schengen zone in the process).

Some quick math shows how this makes Washington’s gut response — to up the ante against Putin and Assad — unpalatable to the Europeans. Of approximately 11 million Syrians who have been driven from their homes in the past four years (about half of Syria’s pre-war population), two-thirds are still in Syria. Moreover, if the chaos continues, they would likely not be the only ones flooding neighboring countries and ultimately Europe.

Joshua Landis estimates that at least a million people would flee the Syrian capital Damascus alone, should the city fall to extremists — a scenario that seemed not only possible, but even likely prior to the Russian-Iranian intervention. Many more would follow from other areas currently held by the government. As things stand now, Landis adds, the West would shoot itself in the foot if it goes on to supply the rebels with more heavy weapons against the emboldened regime.

“One of the reasons there are so many refugees is that the firepower continues to improve, and as it improves, of course more homes get destroyed, and more lives get destroyed, [there is] more insecurity and people have to flee,” said Landis. “So, what you really need is a winner or a truce. The worst thing for refugees is more firepower and an inconclusive battle.”

That helps explain why a growing chorus of voices in Europe is calling for rapprochement with Russia. “We must make efforts towards a practical relationship with Russia,” said European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker earlier this month, quoted by the BBC. “It is not sexy but that must be the case; we can’t go on like this.”

And that would leave the US with two unpalatable choices: either sit at the negotiating table, acknowledging Putin’s gains, or risk putting daylight between Washington and its European allies, playing straight into the Kremlin’s designs to fragment the alliance. Either way, the cunning Russian president has much to gain, not only in the Middle East, but also in Ukraine — many analysts believe that his ultimate goal is to force Europe to accept a frozen conflict in Ukraine and to protect the rest of Russia’s periphery from Western-supported uprisings.

In addition, Putin is collecting various other handsome bonuses from his Syrian adventure: his domestic approval ratings, for example, have shot sky-high. War, of course, is a fickle and heartless business, and the Russian president could yet find his ratings plummeting and the tab for it all spiraling out of control. But for now, for an estimated $2.4–$4 million a day, he is providing the Russian air force with invaluable combat experience while showcasing his military hardware to potential buyers. At this rate, The Moscow Times estimated, an increase of just one percent in Russia’s weapons sales next year would pay for a month’s worth of bombing. Other risks include ISIS training its sights on Russia — a particularly nasty prospect reared in early reports that the organization claimed credit for the downing of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt.

Lest we forget the potential natural-resource opportunities, Putin just got to park his navy right next to several major recent gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean, sending shivers throughout the region. His Syrian adventure may yet turn into a quagmire, but for now it’s shock-and-awe indeed.


Related front page panorama photo credit: Vladimir Putin (World Economic Forum / Wikimedia [(CC BY-SA 2.0]), Air Strikes (Russian Defense Ministry via Google Image Search).

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10 responses to “How Putin Is Getting the Better of the West”

  1. hipocampelofantocame says:

    This must be American exceptionalism in action. It certainly smells like it.

  2. (Comment by reader @GrainOfSands) …unlike USA who will kill anything to make a military contractor rich off war. We are exceptional at war, death & destruction 4$!

  3. (Comment by reader @BaronVoyager) Yoda: Putin’s “Emperor wears no clothes” strategy – may the Evil Empire’s malevolent corporate designs dial back.

  4. Tenant1234 says:

    “Cunning” ? How about rational Putin?

  5. RedBaron9495 says:

    “Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon.
    The pigeon knocks over all the pieces, craps on the board,
    then struts around like it won the game.”

  6. junktex says:

    There are no “moderate rebels”

  7. Rob says:

    Love seeing americunts being the idiot, vile, warmongering losers they are..

  8. Jonn Mero says:

    Good to see a realistic evaluation of Putin for a change. The traditional US running down and underestimation of opposition shows that their imperial ambitions are doomed to fail. And if the US population wakes up to that, they will have a chance to rectify the disintegration of US society. But there’s no reason to think that it will get any better before it has reached a total nadir.

  9. Occams says:

    I love all you ‘freedom of speech’ alternative news sites that CENSOR?

    REALLY?

    Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice.

  10. Occams says:

    As was known, worldwide, except to Americans, al Qaeda and ISIS were 100% US/Israel/UK owned and operated.

    Sadly, this fact is still lost, even though now so well-exposed by Putin, by most Americans, and the ‘news’ propaganda machine has gone full-court press to try to keep Americans believing in yet another concocted fairy tale, and remaining ‘frightened’ of ‘terror’.

    What was the recent US-study released? You’re about 5000 times more likely to be killed in our new Police State, by an Oligarch Enforcement Officer, than any possible ‘act of terror’ – and since a Whistleblower just came out and said “all”acts of terror’ in the US are by the US’……..

    “You get the government you deserve” has never been truer.

    Although supposedly not true, I’m sure that if Putin has seen this going around, he would concur;

    “Negotiating with Obama is like playing chess with a pigeon. The pigeon
    knocks over all the pieces, cr*ps on the board, then struts around like
    it won the game.”

    I cannot think of a better analogy describing our ‘fearless leader’.

    • FiuToYou says:

      I’m out of the country for 45 years. And I have to agree with you. Looking at America from a distance, without the daily false news and propaganda directed towards the population, I see a country that is imploding from within. What a mess – and it’s not getting any better. Clearing the corruption out of the government should be the first thing on everyone’s mind. The problem is that society is so cut up into warring factions that there’s almost no power- group that’s together enough in numbers, to sufficiently change anything. That’s just what the 1% wants. You people have to put away your petty differences, pull together, and take back your country from the ‘mutants’. Good luck with that!

    • Occams says:

      ‘Divide and conquer’ has never been truer. Obama’s and Holder’s attempts at Race Division/war is a perfect example. Confederate Flag. Universities attempting to ban any speech (truth) against Israel….

      The apathy and attention to the most useless cr*p in this country is appalling, but like most places, most Americans won’t figure it out until it’s far too late.

      Which it may well already be.

      San Diegans rose up the other night. Finally…….

      To protest the Charger football team’s possible move.

      Unfrikkenbelievable.

      Dancing with the Stars, iPhones, football, beer, Survivor…… This is all that’s truly important here.

      “Americans are the most misled, misdirected, and therefore the most gullible people on the face of the planet” ~ Alan Hart, author.

    • Jonn Mero says:

      Love that analogy!! Obama is a babe in the woods, and a house negro for the military-industrial complex, – sadly.